European leaders warn of possible Russian attacks on NATO

What This is

• Baltic and Czech intelligence chiefs say Russia may be preparing more decisive action in Europe, including probing NATO with drone or missile strikes or small cross-border incursions.
• These officials describe a rise in Russian sabotage and targeted attacks meant to weaken Western support for Ukraine, while urging the public to stay calm.
• A Russian jet-powered drone hit a locomotive at Yahodyn near the Polish border, narrowly missing a train linked to senior Western security advisers and triggering fears of a major escalation.
• Separate reporting says the strike occurred near trains carrying former UK prime minister Boris Johnson and former CIA director David Petraeus, though it is unclear if the attack was targeted.
• European leaders are also uneasy about U.S. commitment to NATO after President Trump threatened troop cuts and pushed allies to spend more, prompting a Pentagon review of U.S. forces in Europe.
• While European defense spending has risen, trust across the alliance has been strained, and some countries are looking to reduce reliance on U.S. weapons and technology.

Why This Matters

• If Russia probes NATO with a limited strike or incursion, leaders could face fast choices that either deter Moscow or widen the war.
• Sabotage and gray-zone intimidation can pressure governments to respond without clear proof, raising the risk of miscalculation.
• Hard-to-stop jet drones lower the cost of attacks and increase the chance of spillover into nearby NATO countries.
• Doubts about U.S. commitment can weaken deterrence because NATO’s defense depends on allies acting together in a crisis.